In an ominous coincidence, India has seen a sudden uptick in Covid-19 numbers around the third anniversary of the pandemic. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization had declared Covid-19 a global pandemic. Though it is a small spike, it has caught the attention of the government as well as the experts, for small spikes can in no time blow into large outbreaks.
Should you worry?
With the pandemic still killing 900 to 1,000 people a day worldwide, the stealthy virus behind Covid-19 hasn’t lost its punch, AP reports. “Whatever the virus is doing today, it’s still working on finding another winning path,” said Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational Institute in California.
Many think the recent spike could be the result of the waning immunity a huge number of people gained from vaccines.
Padma Shri Dr Randeep Guleria doesn’t think COVID-19 will ever go away. “We keep seeing new cases. The virus will keep mutating. Booster jab is a must. Whether to take it once in a year or five years, it is difficult to say. There is a debate whether another booster after the third jab is required or not.”
Another view is that increased testing for H3N2, a new subtype of influenza, has thrown up Covid-19 cases too. Covid-19 was always there in more or less numbers but the recent spike is due to increased testing. “With the rise in overall flu cases, the testing and eventual identification of Covid has increased. However, cases and hospitalizations are very low compared to population size, and so far there are no indicators of a sustained wave,” an expert told TOI.
The seven-day average of daily cases in India has doubled in the last 11 days, going from 193 on February 28 to 382 on March 11, says a TOI report. At the beginning of the month, the doubling rate was close to 16, indicating that cases have risen at a faster pace in recent days. The weekly death toll has remained under 10 for some time now. India reported six fatalities each in the last two seven-day periods.
Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins, told news agency AP that the current omicron variants have about 100 genetic differences from the original coronavirus strain. That means about 1% of the virus’ genome is different from its starting point. Many of those changes have made it more contagious, but the worst is likely over because of population immunity.
“We’re not likely to go back to where we were because there’s so much of the virus that our immune systems can recognize,” Ray said. Our immunity should protect us “from the worst of what we saw before.”
Do new variants need new vaccines?
The recent spike in Covid-19 might indicate that old vaccines could be less effective against new variants. Dr Randeep Guleria said that bivalent vaccines will give better protection from new variants.
The bivalent COVID-19 vaccines include a component of the original virus strain to provide broad protection against COVID-19 and a component of the omicron variant to provide better protection against COVID-19 caused by the omicron variant to provide better protection against COVID-19 caused by the omicron variant.
“The existing Covid vaccines were developed for protection against the Wuhan strain. The governments in the US and Europe have started giving bivalent vaccines. There are trials going on in India too.”
Source: Economic Times
